
If you're hoping for a real raise this year, the number is probably being set right now. And the default number is small.
Employers expect to spend an average of 3.5% on base-pay increases in 2027, according to Payscale's survey of 1,266 organizations. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September. And on October 30, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that private-industry wages and salaries grew 3.1% over the same year, a 0.6% drop once you adjust for inflation.
So a "normal" raise may not keep you level. Here's how to ask for more, when to ask, what to say and what to do if the answer is no.
Why a standard raise feels like a pay cut this year
For most of the past three years, pay grew faster than prices. That has flipped. By our calculation from BLS data, the 12-month change in consumer prices beat private-sector wage growth in both the June and September 2026 quarters. The last time that happened was 2022.

Next year's budgets don't close the gap. Mercer's July survey of just over a thousand U.S. employers projects an average merit budget of 3.2% for 2027 and a total increase budget of 3.5%, and that average includes people who get nothing. Payscale calls the mood "pay paralysis."
A 3.5% budget doesn't mean 3.5% for everyone
A raise budget is a pool, not a promise. In a survey of 251 companies by Pave and Alpine Rewards, 87% said they use performance ratings to decide individual merit increases, 59% also factor in where someone is paid relative to the market and 49% look at position within the salary range. Only 9% give everyone the same flat increase.
Payscale sees the same shift. 36% of organizations gave across-the-board increases in 2026, but only 32% plan to in 2027. Payscale's headline: "Peanut butter pay is losing its spread."
For you, that means some people will get well above the average and some will get less. A clear, well-timed case is how you end up in the first group. Managers also have a reason to listen: one in four organizations told Payscale that perceptions of unfair pay are a leading reason they lose talent.
When to ask: before the numbers are locked
The most common mistake is waiting until the review meeting. By then, your manager has usually made a recommendation and the pool has been divided.
Ask earlier. When Mercer ran its July survey, 87% of employers said their 2027 projections were still preliminary. Mercer says the numbers usually hold steady from there, so the time to influence your share is while managers are still making their recommendations. If your company reviews pay early in the year, that window is the next few weeks.
Good moments to raise it:
- Weeks before your review, so your manager can make the case upward.
- Right after a clear win, while the result is fresh.
- When your role has grown, for example after taking over a departing colleague's work.
Bad moments: the week of a layoff announcement, or in a hallway on a Friday afternoon. Book time.
Build your case in three parts
1. Results, in numbers. Revenue, savings, hours saved, tickets closed, customers kept, projects shipped. "Cut onboarding time from three weeks to ten days" beats "worked hard on onboarding."
2. Scope. Compare what you do today with what you did when your current pay was set. New responsibilities, people you now train, systems you now own. Scope is what turns a merit conversation into a re-leveling conversation.
3. The market. Look up current postings for your title, level and location, especially ones with posted pay ranges, and check a couple of salary data sources. You're looking for what the same work pays today, not what you were paid last year. Twin-Seeker can help with this: it ranks 100,000+ fresh roles from LinkedIn, Indeed, Glassdoor and company career boards by fit, and its readiness score shows honest skill gaps against the roles you want.
Pick a number, not a percentage
Asking for "a raise" invites the default. Ask for a specific salary, anchored to the market data you gathered, and be ready to explain where it comes from.
If your job has grown, consider asking for a promotion or re-level instead. That's where pay moves most. At 45.5% of the companies Pave surveyed, the typical promotional increase is 9% to 12%, roughly three times a 3.5% merit budget. But promotion and adjustment budgets are tightening, from 1.8% in 2026 to 1.5% planned for 2027, and Mercer's employers expect to promote 8.4% of staff on average. So the case for a promotion needs to be specific: here is the higher-level work I'm already doing.

What to say
To book the meeting (email or chat):
Hi Sam, could we set aside 30 minutes in the next couple of weeks to talk about my role and compensation? I'd like to share what I've taken on this year and get your view before review season.
In the meeting:
Thanks for making time. Over the past year I've [two or three results with numbers], and my role has grown to include [new scope]. I looked at current pay for similar roles at my level in [location], and most fall between [X] and [Y]. Based on that, I'm asking for a salary of [specific number]. What would it take to get there?
Then stop talking. Let your manager respond. If they need to check with HR, agree on a date to follow up and send a short recap email the same day so your case can be forwarded as written.
If the answer is no
A "no" now isn't the end of the conversation. Ask three questions:
- What would need to be true for me to get there? Get specific goals, not "keep doing what you're doing."
- When can we revisit it? Ask for a date, ideally within six months, and put it in writing.
- What else is possible? A title change, a one-time bonus, a training budget, more flexibility or a larger share of next cycle's pool.
Then be honest about your options. Over the 12 months to September, the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker put median wage growth at 4.4% for people who switched jobs, against 3.5% for people who stayed. That gap has widened this year but is far below the two-point gap of late 2022, so moving isn't automatically a much bigger payday. But asking clearly does pay off. In a 2024 LendingTree survey reported by CNBC, 82% of full-time workers who asked for a raise in the past year got one, and 11% of those who got more money did it by having their employer match a competing offer.
If you decide to look around, keep it quiet and organized. Twin-Seeker keeps every saved role, application and interview on one pipeline board, so a side search doesn't take over your evenings. And if an outside offer comes through, our guide on how to negotiate a job offer has scripts you can use.
Watch: Harvard Business Review's short guide to asking for a raise.
Key takeaways
- A standard raise may not keep you level. Private-sector pay rose 3.1% in the year to September while prices rose 3.7%, and 2027 raise budgets average about 3.5% (Payscale, Mercer).
- Budgets are split unevenly. Most companies use performance and market position to divide the pool, and fewer plan across-the-board raises in 2027.
- Ask before your review, not in it. Influence your share while your manager is still making recommendations.
- Bring results, scope, market data and one number. If your job has grown, ask for a promotion. Typical promotion raises run 9% to 12% at many companies (Pave).
- Turn a "no" into a plan, with goals, a date to revisit and alternatives, and know what the outside market would pay.
FAQs
Is a 3% raise good in 2026?
It's close to average, but it may not keep up with prices. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, and private-sector wages rose 3.1%. A 3% raise this year likely means slightly less buying power.
How much should I ask for?
Base it on the market rate for your role, level and location, not a percentage of your current pay. If your responsibilities have grown to the next level, ask for a promotion. At many companies that comes with a 9% to 12% increase.
When is the best time to ask for a raise?
A few weeks before your review cycle, while your manager is still making recommendations, or right after a clear win. Avoid weeks with layoff news or budget freezes.
Should I ask for a raise by email or in person?
Use email or chat to book the meeting, then make the ask in person or on a video call. Follow up with a short written recap so your manager can forward your case.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Cost Index, September 2026 (released Oct 30, 2026)
- FRED: BLS Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, private industry (CIU2020000000000I)
- FRED: BLS Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, not seasonally adjusted (CPIAUCNS)
- Payscale: 2026-2027 Salary Budget Survey press release (Aug 4, 2026)
- Mercer: Projected pay and merit increase budgets for 2027 (July 2026 US Compensation Planning Survey)
- Pave: What companies are budgeting for merit increases in 2027
- FRED: Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker, job switchers, 12-month moving average
- FRED: Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker, job stayers, 12-month moving average
- CNBC: 82% of workers who asked for a raise in the last year got one (Nov 22, 2024, LendingTree survey)
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